In an April 10, 2025 press conference, HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy, Jr. provided an update to the CDC’s autism rate of 1 in 36 children. According to the CDC, autism now affects 1 in 31 children in the United States. We predicted that very number! When then CDC came out with their last prevalence numbers of 1 in 36, we told you it was actually 1 in 31! (Read that article here.)
Did you know that when the CDC reports their most “up-to-date” autism rate, they are usually giving you numbers that are several years old and don’t reflect the true prevalence? And when you are dealing with a condition like autism that is growing exponentially, that numerical discrepancy can mean a lot!
Because I know that the CDC’s 2025 autism rate will be updated two years from now and they will be higher than the 1 in 31 that the CDC just reported, I asked our Senior Scientist and Data Analyst to crunch the numbers to estimate what we think the *real* rate of autism is in 2025. And here is what he found:
THE REAL AUTISM RATE IN 2025 IS 1 IN 25 CHILDREN
The chart above tracks the CDC’s pattern of reporting “updated” autism prevalence numbers and then correcting the data about two years later with the true numbers. Using historical data and statistical methods, we estimate the true rate of autism in 2025 is 1 in 25 children.
And continuing this trend forward (as the chart above shows), when we get to 2033, it will be 1 in 16 children with an autism spectrum diagnosis (an estimated 6.25% of children and 9% of boys!)
Nearly 1 in 10 boys will have autism in 2033.
Let me say that again.
Nearly 1 in 10 boys will have autism in 2033.
Let.
That.
Sink.
In.
Can we start using the word Epidemic yet?!
About Beth Lambert
Beth Lambert is a former healthcare consultant and teacher. As a consultant, she worked with pharmaceutical, medical device, diagnostic and other health care companies to evaluate industry trends.
She is the author of A Compromised Generation: The Epidemic of Chronic Illness in America’s Children (Sentient Publications, 2010). She is also a co-author of Documenting Hope's Brain Under Attack: A Resource for Parents and Caregivers of Children with PANS, PANDAS, and Autoimmune Encephalitis. She is a co-author of Reversal of Autism Symptoms among Dizygotic Twins through a Personalized Lifestyle and Environmental Modification Approach: A Case Report and Review of the Literature, J. Pers. Med. 2024, 14(6), 641.
In 2009, Beth founded Documenting Hope and currently serves as Executive Director. Beth attended Oxford University, graduated from Williams College and holds a Masters Degree in American Studies from Fairfield University.
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